Developing A Probabilistic Load Profile Model For A Distribution Network

Abstract

The mismatch between power demand and power generated will lead to two major problems which are energy losses and unwanted cost of energy production. Developing a load profile for a distribution network is an alternative to overcome the problems by knowing the electricity consumption of the end user. This method is helped in dealing with the load management, planning, design and operation in the distribution system. In developing the load profile, a typical 33-load bus system is tested using MATLAB. As the load in the distribution system is uncertain, the probabilistic analysis, which is Stochastic Method is used and sampled using Monte Carlo Simulation by following the Gamma Distribution. Load Flow Study is applied to obtain the line current. Thus, the generated values of load and line current are analyzed using the probability graph function which will represent the probabilistic load profile and line profile. All the simulation and analysis on developing the probabilistic load profile are done in the MATLAB.