World energy outlook 2018

Abstract

The World Energy Outlook (WEO) provides a unique reference for the international debate on energy. It also plays an essential guiding role for the International Energy Agency’s own strategic thinking, underpinning the Agency’s role as the global energy authority. The WEO-2018 reminds us of the fundamental shift that is taking place in the geography of global energy demand towards developing economies. That is why, as one of the three pillars of the Agency’s modernisation strategy, I have put such emphasis on “opening the doors” of the IEA to key energy players from around the world. With the support of our member countries, we have welcomed Mexico as a new member of the Agency and are building very close institutional ties with new Associate members: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Singapore, South Africa and Thailand. The special focus on electricity in this year’s Outlook demonstrates not only the huge opportunities that arise with the transformation of the global power sector, but also some potential risks. The second pillar of our strategy at the IEA is to reinforce and reappraise our approaches to energy security: alongside work on oil and natural gas, electricity security is becoming a major focus for IEA analysis and engagement. This new edition also underscores that the world is still a long way from meeting its environmental objectives, both in terms of climate and air quality. That is why the third pillar of our modernisation strategy is to transform the Agency into a global hub for co-operation on clean energy technologies and energy efficiency. Our new Clean Energy Transitions Programme is a clear signal of this ambition: a multi-year initiative to accelerate deployment of clean energy technologies, particularly in major developing economies. Most importantly, the WEO underlines once again that policies matter. We should not underestimate the effort required to get to the outcomes described in our main scenario, the New Policies Scenario, which holds up a mirror to the ambitions of policy makers around the world, as they exist today. But nor should we underestimate the need and the potential to improve on these outcomes and to deliver a more secure, affordable, and sustainable energy future. The key message from this WEO is that decisions made by governments will play a critical role in this respect, and the IEA stands ready and willing to provide its support for these endeavours. I would like to applaud the excellent work of the WEO team led by Laura Cozzi – who has taken on the role of the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller – and Tim Gould. I also take this opportunity to thank the many friends and colleagues from around the world that provided valuable comments and expertise during the preparation of the new Outlook.